Full Idea
In English, Bayes's Theorem says that there is a high confirmation when your hypothesis entails an unlikely prediction that turns out to be correct - a very plausible claim.
Gist of Idea
A hypothesis is confirmed if an unlikely prediction comes true
Source
Peter Lipton (Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd) [2004], 01 'Descr')
Book Reference
Lipton,Peter: 'Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd ed)' [Routledge 2004], p.17
A Reaction
Presumably the simple point is that a likely prediction could have been caused by many things, but an unlikely prediction will probably only be caused by that thing.