### Single Idea 2799

#### [catalogued under 14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem]

Full Idea

Bayesianism can explain the fact that in science surprising predictions have greater evidential value, as the equation produces a higher degree of confirmation.

Gist of Idea

Bayes' theorem explains why very surprising predictions have a higher value as evidence

Source

Paul Horwich (Bayesianism [1992], p.42)

Book Reference

Dancy,Jonathan: 'Introduction to Contemporary Epistemology' [Blackwell 1985], p.42