Single Idea 6372

[catalogued under 14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem]

Full Idea

It follows from the probability calculus that every tautology has probability 1; it then follows in Bayesian epistemology that we are justified in believing every tautology.

Gist of Idea

Since every tautology has a probability of 1, should we believe all tautologies?

Source

J Pollock / J Cruz (Contemporary theories of Knowledge (2nd) [1999], §4.3.1.5)

Book Reference

Pollock,J.L./Cruz,J: 'Contemporary Theories of Knowledge (2nd)' [Rowman and Littlefield 1999], p.105


A Reaction

If I say 'a bachelor is a small ant' you wouldn't believe it, but if I said 'I define a bachelor as a small ant' you would have to believe it. 'Bachelors are unmarried' men is a description of English usage, so is not really a simple tautology.