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Single Idea 16175

[filed under theme 26. Natural Theory / C. Causation / 8. Particular Causation / e. Probabilistic causation ]

Full Idea

A cause ought to increase the frequency of the effect, but this fact may not show up in the probabilities if other causes are at work.

Gist of Idea

A cause won't increase the effect frequency if other causes keep interfering

Source

Nancy Cartwright (How the Laws of Physics Lie [1983], 1.1)

Book Ref

Cartwright,Nancy: 'How the Laws of Physics Lie' [OUP 2002], p.23


A Reaction

[She cites Patrick Suppes for this one] Presumably in experimental situations you can weed out the interference, but that threatens to eliminate mere 'probability' entirely.


The 10 ideas with the same theme [causation in terms of probable consequences]:

Probabilistic causal concepts are widely used in everyday life and in science [Salmon]
Probabilistic causation says C is a cause of E if it increases the chances of E occurring [Mellor, by Tooley]
Singular causation requires causes to raise the physical probability of their effects [Mellor]
A cause won't increase the effect frequency if other causes keep interfering [Cartwright,N]
Probabilist laws are compatible with effects always or never happening [Tooley]
The actual cause may not be the most efficacious one [Tooley]
Quantum physics suggests that the basic laws of nature are probabilistic [Tooley]
Probabilistic causation is not a weak type of cause; it is just a probability of there being a cause [Heil]
The actual cause may make an event less likely than a possible more effective cause [Schaffer,J]
All four probability versions of causation may need causation to be primitive [Schaffer,J]