more from this thinker     |     more from this text


Single Idea 16838

[filed under theme 14. Science / D. Explanation / 3. Best Explanation / c. Against best explanation ]

Full Idea

Bayesians object to inference to the best explanation, because someone who favoured powerful ('lovely') explanations would end up with an incoherent distribution of states of belief. They would be persuaded by loss-making wagers (a 'dutch book').

Gist of Idea

Bayesians say best explanations build up an incoherent overall position

Source

Peter Lipton (Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd) [2004], 07 'The Bayesian')

Book Ref

Lipton,Peter: 'Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd ed)' [Routledge 2004], p.104


A Reaction

[compressed; he cites Van Fraassen 1989 Ch.7] Lipton's Ch. 7 tries to address this issue.


The 11 ideas with the same theme [rejection of the possibility of 'best' explanations]:

We should accept as explanations all the plausible ways in which something could come about [Epicurus]
Inference to best explanation contains all sorts of hidden values [Fraassen]
Why should the true explanation be one of the few we have actually thought of? [Fraassen, by Bird]
In science, best explanations have regularly turned out to be false [Cartwright,N]
Must we only have one explanation, and must all the data be made relevant? [Lipton]
Bayesians say best explanations build up an incoherent overall position [Lipton]
The best theory is boring: compare 'all planets move elliptically' with 'most of them do' [Lipton]
Best explanation can't be a guide to truth, because the truth must precede explanation [Lipton]
The success and virtue of an explanation do not guarantee its truth [Segal]
Maybe bad explanations are the true ones, in this messy world [Bird]
Which explanation is 'best' is bound to be subjective, and no guide to truth [Bird]