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Single Idea 16840

[filed under theme 14. Science / D. Explanation / 2. Types of Explanation / l. Probabilistic explanations ]

Full Idea

If all we wanted was to maximise probability, we would never venture beyond our data.

Gist of Idea

To maximise probability, don't go beyond your data

Source

Peter Lipton (Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd) [2004], 07 'friends')

Book Ref

Lipton,Peter: 'Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd ed)' [Routledge 2004], p.110

The 7 ideas with the same theme [explain by showing what increases probabilities]:

13056 Statistical explanation needs relevance, not high probability [Salmon]
13057 Think of probabilities in terms of propensities rather than frequencies [Salmon]
13060 Can events whose probabilities are low be explained? [Salmon]
16274 If the well-ordering of a pack of cards was by shuffling, the explanation would make it more surprising [Lewis]
16840 To maximise probability, don't go beyond your data [Lipton]
6756 Probabilistic-statistical explanations don't entail the explanandum, but makes it more likely [Bird]
6760 An operation might reduce the probability of death, yet explain a death [Bird]