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Single Idea 22656

[filed under theme 14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem ]

Full Idea

The absurd abstraction of an intellect verbally formulating all its evidence and carefully estimating the probability thereof solely by the size of a vulgar fraction, is as ideally inept as it is practically impossible.

Gist of Idea

Trying to assess probabilities by mere calculation is absurd and impossible

Source

William James (The Sentiment of Rationality [1882], p.40)

Book Ref

James,William: 'Selected Writings of William James', ed/tr. Bird,Graham [Everyman 1995], p.40

A Reaction

James probably didn't know about Bayes, but this is directed at the Bayesian approach. My view is that full rational assessment of coherence is a much better bet than a Bayesian calculation. Factors must be weighted.

The 18 ideas from 'The Sentiment of Rationality'

22643 It seems that we feel rational when we detect no irrationality [James]
22645 Understanding by means of causes is useless if they are not reduced to a minimum number [James]
22644 Our greatest pleasure is the economy of reducing chaotic facts to one single fact [James]
22646 We have a passion for knowing the parts of something, rather than the whole [James]
22647 A complete system is just a classification of the whole world's ingredients [James]
22648 A single explanation must have a single point of view [James]
22649 Classification can only ever be for a particular purpose [James]
22650 How can the ground of rationality be itself rational? [James]
22651 Dogs' curiosity only concerns what will happen next [James]
22652 The mind has evolved entirely for practical interests, seen in our reflex actions [James]
22653 Early Christianity says God recognises the neglected weak and tender impulses [James]
22654 We can't know if the laws of nature are stable, but we must postulate it or assume it [James]
22656 Trying to assess probabilities by mere calculation is absurd and impossible [James]
22655 Scientific genius extracts more than other people from the same evidence [James]
22657 All good philosophers start from a dumb conviction about which truths can be revealed [James]
22658 Experimenters assume the theory is true, and stick to it as long as result don't disappoint [James]
22659 It is wisdom to believe what you desire, because belief is needed to achieve it [James]
22660 Evolution suggests prevailing or survival as a new criterion of right and wrong [James]