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Single Idea 4261

[filed under theme 5. Theory of Logic / L. Paradox / 4. Paradoxes in Logic / e. The Lottery paradox ]

Full Idea

The Lottery Paradox says that for 100 tickets and one winner, each ticket has a .99 likelihood of defeat, so they are all likely to lose, so there is unlikely to be a winner.

Gist of Idea

The Lottery Paradox says each ticket is likely to lose, so there probably won't be a winner

Source

report of Laurence Bonjour (Externalist Theories of Empirical Knowledge [1980], §5) by PG - Db (ideas)

Book Ref

'Epistemology: Internalism and Externalism', ed/tr. Kornblith,Hilary [Blackwell 2001], p.27

A Reaction

The problem seems to be viewing each ticket in isolation. If I buy two tickets, I increase my chances of winning.

The 2 ideas with the same theme [problem when deciding whether your ticket will win]:

6368 If my ticket won't win the lottery (and it won't), no other tickets will either [Kyburg, by Pollock/Cruz]
4261 The Lottery Paradox says each ticket is likely to lose, so there probably won't be a winner [Bonjour, by PG]