more from this thinker | more from this text
Full Idea
In the 'cab problem' (what colour was the cab in the accident?) most people estimate an 80% probability of it being a blue cab, but Bayes' Theorem calculates the probability at 41%, suggesting people put too much faith in eyewitness testimony.
Clarification
Bayes' Theorem is an equation for calculating probability, given a certain observation
Gist of Idea
People are wildly inaccurate in estimating probabilities about an observed event
Source
E.J. Lowe (Introduction to the Philosophy of Mind [2000], Ch. 8)
Book Ref
Lowe,E.J.: 'Introduction to the Philosophy of Mind' [CUP 2000], p.201
A Reaction
For details of the 'cab problem', see Lowe p.200. My suspicion is that people get into a tangle when confronted with numbers in a theoretical situation, but are much better at it when faced with a real life problem, like 'who ate my chocolate?'
| 23252 | Socrates first proposed that we are run by mind or reason [Socrates, by Frede,M] |
| 23307 | Aristotle makes belief a part of reason, but sees desires as separate [Aristotle, by Sorabji] |
| 72 | Assume our reason is in two parts, one for permanent first principles, and one for variable things [Aristotle] |
| 23311 | Aristotle sees reason as much more specific than our more everyday concept of it [Aristotle, by Frede,M] |
| 4017 | Descartes created the modern view of rationality, as an internal feature instead of an external vision [Descartes, by Taylor,C] |
| 19221 | Everybody overrates their own reasoning, so it is clearly superficial [Peirce] |
| 2899 | The fanatical rationality of Greek philosophy shows that they were in a state of emergency [Nietzsche] |
| 22643 | It seems that we feel rational when we detect no irrationality [James] |
| 9591 | The human intellect has not been, and cannot be, fully formalized [Nagel/Newman] |
| 23438 | Full rationality must include morality [Foot] |
| 7611 | Rationality is one part of our conception of human flourishing [Putnam] |
| 6651 | People are wildly inaccurate in estimating probabilities about an observed event [Lowe] |
| 6652 | 'Base rate neglect' makes people favour the evidence over its background [Lowe] |
| 6555 | We are also irrational, with a unique ability to believe in bizarre self-created fictions [Fogelin] |