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Single Idea 6652

[filed under theme 18. Thought / A. Modes of Thought / 5. Rationality / b. Human rationality ]

Full Idea

'Base rate neglect' (attending to the witness or evidence, and ignoring background information) is responsible for doctors exaggerating the significance of positive results in diagnosis of relatively rare medical conditions.

Gist of Idea

'Base rate neglect' makes people favour the evidence over its background

Source

E.J. Lowe (Introduction to the Philosophy of Mind [2000], Ch. 8)

Book Ref

Lowe,E.J.: 'Introduction to the Philosophy of Mind' [CUP 2000], p.201

A Reaction

This seems to be one of the clearest cases where people's behaviour is irrational, though I suspect that people are much more rational about things if the case is simple and non-numerical. However, people are very credulous about wonderful events.

The 14 ideas with the same theme [human capacity to reason]:

23252 Socrates first proposed that we are run by mind or reason [Socrates, by Frede,M]
23307 Aristotle makes belief a part of reason, but sees desires as separate [Aristotle, by Sorabji]
72 Assume our reason is in two parts, one for permanent first principles, and one for variable things [Aristotle]
23311 Aristotle sees reason as much more specific than our more everyday concept of it [Aristotle, by Frede,M]
4017 Descartes created the modern view of rationality, as an internal feature instead of an external vision [Descartes, by Taylor,C]
19221 Everybody overrates their own reasoning, so it is clearly superficial [Peirce]
2899 The fanatical rationality of Greek philosophy shows that they were in a state of emergency [Nietzsche]
22643 It seems that we feel rational when we detect no irrationality [James]
9591 The human intellect has not been, and cannot be, fully formalized [Nagel/Newman]
23438 Full rationality must include morality [Foot]
7611 Rationality is one part of our conception of human flourishing [Putnam]
6651 People are wildly inaccurate in estimating probabilities about an observed event [Lowe]
6652 'Base rate neglect' makes people favour the evidence over its background [Lowe]
6555 We are also irrational, with a unique ability to believe in bizarre self-created fictions [Fogelin]