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Single Idea 6760

[filed under theme 14. Science / D. Explanation / 2. Types of Explanation / l. Probabilistic explanations ]

Full Idea

An operation for cancer might lead to a patient's death, and so it explains the patient's death while at the same time reducing the probability of death.

Gist of Idea

An operation might reduce the probability of death, yet explain a death

Source

Alexander Bird (Philosophy of Science [1998], Ch.2)

Book Ref

Bird,Alexander: 'Philosophy of Science' [UCL Press 2000], p.76


A Reaction

This attacks Hempel's 'covering law' approach. Increasing probability of something clearly does not necessarily explain it, though it often will. Feeding you contaminated food will increase the probability of your death, and may cause it.


The 7 ideas with the same theme [explain by showing what increases probabilities]:

Statistical explanation needs relevance, not high probability [Salmon]
Think of probabilities in terms of propensities rather than frequencies [Salmon]
Can events whose probabilities are low be explained? [Salmon]
If the well-ordering of a pack of cards was by shuffling, the explanation would make it more surprising [Lewis]
To maximise probability, don't go beyond your data [Lipton]
Probabilistic-statistical explanations don't entail the explanandum, but makes it more likely [Bird]
An operation might reduce the probability of death, yet explain a death [Bird]