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Single Idea 6794

[filed under theme 14. Science / A. Basis of Science / 6. Falsification ]

Full Idea

In Popper's sense of the word 'falsify', whereby an observation statement falsifies a hypothesis only by being logically inconsistent with it, nothing can ever falsify a probabilistic or statistical hypothesis, which is therefore unscientific.

Gist of Idea

If falsification requires logical inconsistency, then probabilistic statements can't be falsified

Source

comment on Karl Popper (The Logic of Scientific Discovery [1934]) by Alexander Bird - Philosophy of Science Ch.5

Book Ref

Bird,Alexander: 'Philosophy of Science' [UCL Press 2000], p.179

A Reaction

In general, no prediction can be falsified until the events occur. This seems to be Aristotle's 'sea fight' problem (Idea 1703).

Related Idea

Idea 1703 It is necessary that either a sea-fight occurs tomorrow or it doesn't, though neither option is in itself necessary [Aristotle]

The 21 ideas with the same theme [establishing that a fact or theory is not true]:

5862 A single counterexample is enough to prove that a truth is not necessary [Aristotle]
5629 If a proposition implies any false consequences, then it is false [Kant]
22658 Experimenters assume the theory is true, and stick to it as long as result don't disappoint [James]
22137 Observation can force rejection of some part of the initial set of claims [Duhem, by Boulter]
19464 We only discard a hypothesis after one failure if it appears likely to keep on failing [Ayer]
22191 Kuhn's scientists don't aim to falsifying their paradigm, because that is what they rely on [Kuhn, by Gorham]
18076 Most theories are continually falsified [Kuhn, by Kitcher]
22188 Give Nobel Prizes for really good refutations? [Gorham on Popper]
7780 Falsification is the criterion of demarcation between science and non-science [Popper, by Magee]
16830 We don't only reject hypotheses because we have falsified them [Lipton on Popper]
6794 If falsification requires logical inconsistency, then probabilistic statements can't be falsified [Bird on Popper]
6795 When Popper gets in difficulties, he quietly uses induction to help out [Bird on Popper]
18284 Particulars can be verified or falsified, but general statements can only be falsified (conclusively) [Popper]
4223 Unfalsifiability may be a failure in an empirical theory, but it is a virtue in metaphysics [Lowe]
4644 A proposition such as 'some swans are purple' cannot be falsified, only verified [Baggini /Fosl]
22174 The discoverers of Neptune didn't change their theory because of an anomaly [Okasha]
22175 Science mostly aims at confirming theories, rather than falsifying them [Okasha]
22189 Why abandon a theory if you don't have a better one? [Gorham]
22190 If a theory is more informative it is less probable [Gorham]
19685 Falsificationism would be naive if even a slight discrepancy in evidence killed a theory [McGrew]
14576 Smoking disposes towards cancer; smokers without cancer do not falsify this claim [Mumford/Anjum]