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Single Idea 6796

[filed under theme 10. Modality / B. Possibility / 6. Probability ]

Full Idea

Subjective probability measures a person's strength of belief in the truth of a proposition; objective probability concerns the chance a certain sort of event has of happening, independently of whether anyone thinks it is likely to occur or not.

Gist of Idea

Subjective probability measures personal beliefs; objective probability measures the chance of an event happening

Source

Alexander Bird (Philosophy of Science [1998], Ch.6)

Book Ref

Bird,Alexander: 'Philosophy of Science' [UCL Press 2000], p.188

A Reaction

The challenge to the second one is that God would know for certain whether a meteor will hit the Earth next week. The impact looks like 'bad luck' to us, but necessary to one who really knows.

The 15 ideas with the same theme [asserting the degree of likelihood of a fact]:

2216 We transfer the frequency of past observations to our future predictions [Hume]
19142 Probability can be constrained by axioms, but that leaves open its truth nature [Davidson]
19305 The Gambler's Fallacy (ten blacks, so red is due) overemphasises the early part of a sequence [Harman]
19310 High probability premises need not imply high probability conclusions [Harman]
7448 Probability is statistical (behaviour of chance devices) or epistemological (belief based on evidence) [Hacking]
7447 Probability was fully explained between 1654 and 1812 [Hacking]
7449 Epistemological probability based either on logical implications or coherent judgments [Hacking]
14281 A thing works like formal probability if all the options sum to 100% [Edgington]
14284 Conclusion improbability can't exceed summed premise improbability in valid arguments [Edgington]
13857 Truth-functional possibilities include the irrelevant, which is a mistake [Edgington]
6796 Subjective probability measures personal beliefs; objective probability measures the chance of an event happening [Bird]
6797 Objective probability of tails measures the bias of the coin, not our beliefs about it [Bird]
14903 Quantum mechanics seems to imply single-case probabilities [Ladyman/Ross]
14923 In quantum statistics, two separate classical states of affairs are treated as one [Ladyman/Ross]
24054 Everything has a probability, something will happen, and probabilities add up [PG]