more from this thinker     |     more from this text

Single Idea 6797

[filed under theme 10. Modality / B. Possibility / 6. Probability ]

Full Idea

In tossing a coin, the objective probability of tails is a measure of the bias of the coin; the bias and the probability are objective features of the coin, like its mass and shape; these properties have nothing to do with our beliefs about the coin.

Gist of Idea

Objective probability of tails measures the bias of the coin, not our beliefs about it

Source

Alexander Bird (Philosophy of Science [1998], Ch.6)

Book Ref

Bird,Alexander: 'Philosophy of Science' [UCL Press 2000], p.190

A Reaction

Despite my reservation that God would not seem to be very interested in the probabilities of coin-tossing, since he knows each outcome with certaintly, this is fairly convincing. God might say that the coin has a 'three-to-two bias'.

The 15 ideas with the same theme [asserting the degree of likelihood of a fact]:

2216 We transfer the frequency of past observations to our future predictions [Hume]
19142 Probability can be constrained by axioms, but that leaves open its truth nature [Davidson]
19305 The Gambler's Fallacy (ten blacks, so red is due) overemphasises the early part of a sequence [Harman]
19310 High probability premises need not imply high probability conclusions [Harman]
7448 Probability is statistical (behaviour of chance devices) or epistemological (belief based on evidence) [Hacking]
7447 Probability was fully explained between 1654 and 1812 [Hacking]
7449 Epistemological probability based either on logical implications or coherent judgments [Hacking]
14281 A thing works like formal probability if all the options sum to 100% [Edgington]
14284 Conclusion improbability can't exceed summed premise improbability in valid arguments [Edgington]
13857 Truth-functional possibilities include the irrelevant, which is a mistake [Edgington]
6796 Subjective probability measures personal beliefs; objective probability measures the chance of an event happening [Bird]
6797 Objective probability of tails measures the bias of the coin, not our beliefs about it [Bird]
14903 Quantum mechanics seems to imply single-case probabilities [Ladyman/Ross]
14923 In quantum statistics, two separate classical states of affairs are treated as one [Ladyman/Ross]
24054 Everything has a probability, something will happen, and probabilities add up [PG]