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Single Idea 7449

[filed under theme 10. Modality / B. Possibility / 6. Probability ]

Full Idea

Epistemological probability is torn between Keynes etc saying it depends on the strength of logical implication, and Ramsey etc saying it is personal judgement which is subject to strong rules of internal coherence.

Gist of Idea

Epistemological probability based either on logical implications or coherent judgments

Source

Ian Hacking (The Emergence of Probability [1975], Ch.2)

Book Ref

Hacking,Ian: 'The Emergence of Probability' [CUP 1975], p.14


A Reaction

See Idea 7449 for epistemological probability. My immediate intuition is that the Ramsey approach sounds much more plausible. In real life there are too many fine-grained particulars involved for straight implication to settle a probability.

Related Idea

Idea 7449 Epistemological probability based either on logical implications or coherent judgments [Hacking]


The 8 ideas from 'The Emergence of Probability'

Probability was fully explained between 1654 and 1812 [Hacking]
Probability is statistical (behaviour of chance devices) or epistemological (belief based on evidence) [Hacking]
Follow maths for necessary truths, and jurisprudence for contingent truths [Hacking]
Epistemological probability based either on logical implications or coherent judgments [Hacking]
In the medieval view, only deduction counted as true evidence [Hacking]
Formerly evidence came from people; the new idea was that things provided evidence [Hacking]
An experiment is a test, or an adventure, or a diagnosis, or a dissection [Hacking, by PG]
Gassendi is the first great empiricist philosopher [Hacking]