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Full Idea
An operation for cancer might lead to a patient's death, and so it explains the patient's death while at the same time reducing the probability of death.
Gist of Idea
An operation might reduce the probability of death, yet explain a death
Source
Alexander Bird (Philosophy of Science [1998], Ch.2)
Book Ref
Bird,Alexander: 'Philosophy of Science' [UCL Press 2000], p.76
A Reaction
This attacks Hempel's 'covering law' approach. Increasing probability of something clearly does not necessarily explain it, though it often will. Feeding you contaminated food will increase the probability of your death, and may cause it.