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10. Modality / B. Possibility / 6. Probability

[asserting the degree of likelihood of a fact]

14 ideas
We transfer the frequency of past observations to our future predictions [Hume]
Probability can be constrained by axioms, but that leaves open its truth nature [Davidson]
The Gambler's Fallacy (ten blacks, so red is due) overemphasises the early part of a sequence [Harman]
High probability premises need not imply high probability conclusions [Harman]
Probability is statistical (behaviour of chance devices) or epistemological (belief based on evidence) [Hacking]
Probability was fully explained between 1654 and 1812 [Hacking]
Epistemological probability based either on logical implications or coherent judgments [Hacking]
A thing works like formal probability if all the options sum to 100% [Edgington]
Conclusion improbability can't exceed summed premise improbability in valid arguments [Edgington]
Truth-functional possibilities include the irrelevant, which is a mistake [Edgington]
Subjective probability measures personal beliefs; objective probability measures the chance of an event happening [Bird]
Objective probability of tails measures the bias of the coin, not our beliefs about it [Bird]
Quantum mechanics seems to imply single-case probabilities [Ladyman/Ross]
In quantum statistics, two separate classical states of affairs are treated as one [Ladyman/Ross]