Full Idea
I doubt that anyone will accept any counterfactual as true unless they believe they know the underlying causality.
Gist of Idea
People only accept the counterfactual when they know the underlying cause
Source
R.D. Ingthorsson (A Powerful Particulars View of Causation [2021], 9.3)
A Reaction
Correct. Almost any example will support it. Compare coincidences and true causes.
Book Reference
'Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Time', ed/tr. Callender,Craig [OUP 2013], p.155