more from Gottlob Frege

Single Idea 8626

[catalogued under 14. Science / C. Induction / 1. Induction]

Full Idea

The procedure of the sciences, with its objective standards, will at times find a high probability established by a single confirmatory instance, while at others it will dismiss a thousand as almost worthless.

Gist of Idea

In science one observation can create high probability, while a thousand might prove nothing


Gottlob Frege (Grundlagen der Arithmetik (Foundations) [1884], 10)

Book Reference

Frege,Gottlob: 'The Foundations of Arithmetic (Austin)', ed/tr. Austin,J.L. [Blackwell 1980], p.16

A Reaction

This thought is presumably what pushes theorists away from traditional induction and towards Bayes's Theorem (Idea 2798). The remark is a great difficulty for anyone trying to defend traditional induction.

Related Idea

Idea 2798 Probability of H, given evidence E, is prob(H) x prob(E given H) / prob(E) [Horwich]