more from Alan Turing

Single Idea 5321

[catalogued under 18. Thought / B. Mechanics of Thought / 6. Artificial Thought / c. Turing Test]

Full Idea

In about fifty years' time it will be possible to program computers to play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70% chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning.

Gist of Idea

In 50 years computers will successfully imitate humans with a 70% success rate

Source

Alan Turing (Computing Machinery and Intelligence [1950], p.57), quoted by Robert Kirk - Mind and Body 5.9

Book Reference

Kirk,Robert: 'Mind and Body' [Acumen 2003], p.115


A Reaction

This is the famous prophecy called 'The Turing Test'. The current state (2004) seems to be that the figure of 70% is very near, but no one sees much prospect of advancing much further in the next 100 years. Dennett sees jokes as a big problem.