Ideas from 'Bayesianism' by Paul Horwich , by Theme Structure
[found in 'Introduction to Contemporary Epistemology' by Dancy,Jonathan [Blackwell 1985,0-631-13622-3]].
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14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem
Probability of H, given evidence E, is prob(H) x prob(E given H) / prob(E)
Bayes' theorem explains why very surprising predictions have a higher value as evidence