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Ideas for 'Theory of Science (4 vols)', 'Bayesianism' and 'Inessential Aristotle: Powers without Essences'

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3 ideas

14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem

2798	Probability of H, given evidence E, is prob(H) x prob(E given H) / prob(E) [Horwich]

2799	Bayes' theorem explains why very surprising predictions have a higher value as evidence [Horwich]

14. Science / D. Explanation / 2. Types of Explanation / g. Causal explanations

15144

Explanation of causal phenomena concerns essential kinds - but also lack of them [Chakravartty]