Full Idea
If Pam threw the brick that broke the window, then Bob (who refrained) might be a more reliable vandal, so that Pam's throw might have made the shattering less likely, so probability-raising is not necessary for causation.
Gist of Idea
The actual cause may make an event less likely than a possible more effective cause
Source
Jonathan Schaffer (The Metaphysics of Causation [2007], 2.1)
Book Reference
'Stanford Online Encyclopaedia of Philosophy', ed/tr. Stanford University [plato.stanford.edu], p.17
A Reaction
That objection looks pretty conclusive to me. I take the probabilistic view to be a non-starter.