Single Idea 14990

[catalogued under 14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem]

Full Idea

In the Bayesian approach, bizarre prior probability distributions will result in bizarre responses to evidence.

Gist of Idea

Bayes produces weird results if the prior probabilities are bizarre

Source

Theodore Sider (Writing the Book of the World [2011], 03.3)

Book Reference

Sider,Theodore: 'Writing the Book of the World' [OUP 2011], p.36


A Reaction

This is exactly what you find when people with weird beliefs encounter ridiculous evidence for things. It doesn't invalidate the formula, but just says rubbish in rubbish out.