Single Idea 22656

[catalogued under 14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem]

Full Idea

The absurd abstraction of an intellect verbally formulating all its evidence and carefully estimating the probability thereof solely by the size of a vulgar fraction, is as ideally inept as it is practically impossible.

Gist of Idea

Trying to assess probabilities by mere calculation is absurd and impossible

Source

William James (The Sentiment of Rationality [1882], p.40)

Book Reference

James,William: 'Selected Writings of William James', ed/tr. Bird,Graham [Everyman 1995], p.40


A Reaction

James probably didn't know about Bayes, but this is directed at the Bayesian approach. My view is that full rational assessment of coherence is a much better bet than a Bayesian calculation. Factors must be weighted.