Full Idea
Bayesianism can explain the fact that in science surprising predictions have greater evidential value, as the equation produces a higher degree of confirmation.
Gist of Idea
Bayes' theorem explains why very surprising predictions have a higher value as evidence
Source
Paul Horwich (Bayesianism [1992], p.42)
Book Reference
Dancy,Jonathan: 'Introduction to Contemporary Epistemology' [Blackwell 1985], p.42